Opening Thoughts: On Sunday the Badgers take on the Nittany Lions from Penn State. It should be a win, but maybe not as easily sans Leuer.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #13 and Penn State #159. He makes Wisconsin a 18-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #6 and Penn State #108. He predicts a 66-50 Badger victory in 57 possessions and gives the Badgers a 96% chance of winning.
Note: Sagarin and Pomeroy are unable to objectively calculate UW’s abilities with Jon Leuer out, so they don’t.
Penn State Rotation:
*G – 6’0” JR Talor Battle (18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 106.4 OR, 29% Poss, 30% Shot, 14% TO, 3% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 45% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO Chris Babb (7.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 82% FT, 113.2 OR, 17% Poss, 20% Shot, 12% TO, 4% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 79% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’7” JR David Jackson (8.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 53% 2PT, 76% FT, 117.1 OR, 15% Poss, 15% Shot, 13% TO, 7% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 26% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” JR Jeff Brooks (7.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.9 SPG, 55% 2PT, 79% FT, 101.9 OR, 18% Poss, 19% Shot, 20% TO, 5% OffReb, 12% DefReb, 21% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’10” JR Andrew Jones (5.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 APG, 57% 2PT, 98.5 OR, 15% Poss, 14% Shot, 21% TO, 8% OffReb, 16% DefReb, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’1” FR Tim Frazier (6.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 42% 3PT, 95.3 OR, 22% Poss, 17% Shot, 25% TO, 3% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 23% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’6” FR Bill Edwards (5.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 65% 2PT, 79.9 OR, 26% Poss, 24% Shot, 28% TO, 6% OffReb, 20% DefReb, 39% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’10” JR Andrew Ott (4.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 57% 2PT, 114.0 OR, 18% Poss, 15% Shot, 17% TO, 13% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’5” SO Cammeron Woodyard (2.2 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 81.8 OR, 16% Poss, 20% Shot, 14% TO, 4% OffReb, 8% DefReb, 74% of FGAs are 3PT)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
What Penn State is really good at:
1. Defensive Rebounding. PSU is 4th in the nation at it, grabbing 73.8%. That’s 2nd in the Big Ten.
2. Not sending opponents to the line. They are 8th in the nation at keeping opponents away from the line, with opponents taking 1 free throw for every 4 shot attempts. They are first in the Big Ten.
What Penn State is really bad at:
1. Defending threes. PSU gives up 36.5% from deep, good for 269th and 10th in the Big Ten.
2. Forcing turnovers. They are 311th in forcing TO’s at 17.8%, which is last in the Big Ten.
3. Blocking shots. They are 329th in blocking opponents’ two-pointers, getting one in 20 attempts. They are 10th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When PSU has the ball: PSU has scored an above average 1.04 PPP in their first 18 games, while UW has given up a great 0.85 in their first 19.
When UW has the ball: PSU gave up an above average 0.98 in their first 18 games, while UW has scored a great 1.14 in their first 19.
Pace: PSU has played at 64 possessions per game so far in their first 18 games compared to UW’s 62 in their first 13 games.
My expectations:
1. Battle doesn’t reach 15. Hughes has always been able to bully him into a bad game.
2. Hughes scores more than 15. Hughes can bully Battle on the other side of the ball.
3. Badgers attempt more than 15 free throws. Hughes and Taylor drive to the rim and draw a bunch of fouls, garnering throws early and often.
4. Jason Bohannon lights up PSU, scoring more than 13. He seems to play more assertively off the dribble in the Kohl.
My Prediction: The Badgers win again, beating the Lions 65-52 in 56 possessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment