Sunday, January 17, 2010

OSU 2.0 Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: UW lost 60 to 51 in what Shetown called OSU2.0. Rematches are always difficult, especially when played on the other guy’s court. Add that they got their best player back and UW lost their best player, things were definitely different.

I was hopeful but realistic. OSU played a steady game and drove home a well-earned victory. A tip of the cap to Matta and the Buckeyes.

Summarizing the game in a few words: OSU was efficient inside the arc, outside the arc, and at the line plus they forced an abnormal number of turnovers to win the game.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? UW did poorly at both (or OSU was good at both, take your pick). OSU scored 1.07 PPP and UW scored .91 PPP.

1.07 for the opponent was the fourth most PPP we have given up this year (Zags, Duke, GB), and the most in conference (second most was NU – another non-Leuer game).

On offense, our .91 was our second to worst of the year behind only MSU. That was good enough to win 3 conference games and 5 non conference games, but not nearly enough to beat a good team

Pace: The game had 56 possessions. Only NU’s 50 had fewer this year.

Shooting: Without Leuer, UW bombed away from deep but needed an extraordinary effort to win, which they did not get.

eFG%: OSU was at 55% and UW 50%. OSU’s 55% was the second highest of the year (GB hit 56%). We typically hold our opponents to 44%, 45% in conference. We score at 52%, 48% in conference,

3 pt shooting: OSU won the quality, UW the quantity battle outside the arc. OSU took only 6 shots from deep and nailed 3 for 50%, the best percentage this year for an opponent. Meanwhile, UW put up and additional 20 shots (26 in total) and made 6 more for a respectable 35%. UW outscored OSU by 18 outside the arc.

2pt shooting: OSU won the quantity and quality battle inside the arc. OSU was 21 of 40 for 53%. That is the best percentage for an opponent this year. UW was 10 of 21 for a respectable 48%. OSU got back the 18 they gave up outside the arc plus another 4 inside the arc.

1pt shooting: OSU was 9-12 for 75% while UW was 4-5 for 80%. OSU picked up 5 more at the line.

Rebounding: Both teams had comparable efforts protecting their defensive glass.

UW Defensive end: There were 25 rebounding opportunities and UW got 18 leaving OSU 6 or 24%. That is on our nation leading 24% average. Good job defending the glass without the big guy.

UW Offensive End: There were 29 rebounding opportunities and UW got 8 or 28%. That is below the national average of 33% but respectable for UW.

Turnovers: I expected turnovers to be a major factor in the game. Evan Turner has been averaging over 5 turnovers per 40 minutes played. They were a major factor, just not in UW’s favor. OSU had 11 for 20% rate and UW had 14 for 25% TO rate. That is our worst performance of the year. Ugh.

Opportunity Index: OK, loyal readers, here is our second ever Opportunity Index. UW was +2 on offensive rebounds and -3 on turnovers giving UW a -1 Offensive Index. So, assuming that an offensive rebound cancels out a turnover, OSU had one extra possession. The 25% TO rate made for too many empty possessions.

Fouls: OSU had 16 and UW 17. In conference, we have out-fouled our opponents slightly 17.7 to 17.3 per game.

Playing time: Bo pulled a switcheroo from the NU game strategy and played 8 players ten or more minutes. Evans got 13, Bruesewitz 10 and Wilson 11. Berggren chipped in 6.

Notable Performances: The big scorers for UW were Hughes and Bohannon. Hughes got 18 on 16 shots, 4-9 from deep, 3 rebounds and 3 TO’s. JBo got 10 on 6 shots from the floor – all threes – and made 2, 4-4 from the line, and 2 boards, but was tagged with two turnovers. JBo continued his remarkable shot blocking display by smothering a three ball from Diebler. Air JBo lives!

Jarmusz had a nice line scoring 6 on 4 shots and grabbed 6 rebounds. Keaton Nankivil scored 9 on 7 shots and also grabbed 6 rebounds.

The thing that dragged down the PPP was the turnovers. Nankivil and Hughes each had 3, Taylor and Evans 2 each, and Jarmusz, Taylor, Bruesewitz had one to go along with one team turnover (shot clock violation I believe).

For OSU, Lighty had a nice line scoring 18 on 10 shots. He exposed weakness in Wilson’s defense. Lighty scored 1.38 PPP.

Buford was 3-12 from the floor, but grabbed 12 boards.

Turner scored 15 on 13 shots, 1-2 from the line, one rebound, and was tagged with 5 turnovers – almost half the team’s total. Turner scored a remarkably low .79 PPP (15 points, 13 FGA, 1 FT trip, 5 turnovers). Turner played 26 minutes. I would like to chart his shots. I bet all his made shots were at the rim. I think the best way to play him is to dare him to shoot over you. They may also fail, but it seems it is worth a try.

Last time I got positive feedback for the line, “JBo and Diebler were locked in an intergalactic matter/antimatter mutual destruction wrestling match.” How to top such a line? JBo had a slightly better day. Jbo had more points (10-8), took one more shot (6-5), they each made all their free throws, JBO got more rebounds (2-0), and each had 2 turnovers. But, JBo blocked Diebler’s shot which give JBo bragging rights.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Diebler doesn’t reach double digits. Diebler is a great 3-point shooter, but last season and earlier this season he was chased very well by J-Bo and Taylor, and I think that happens again, preventing Diebler from having a solid game. Hit. Diebler got 8.

2. Jordan Taylor scores more than 14. Ohio State doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to stay in front of both Pop and Jordan, and I think they put priority on Trevon. Miss. Taylor had an off day scoring 6 on 11 shots including 0-5 from deep. If Taylor scored 14, it might have been a different ball game.

3. Badgers grab 80% or more of the defensive rebounding opportunities. I’ll give this one a go again against a bad/disinterested offensive rebounding team. Near Miss. UW got 76% which is still very good.

4. Badgers hold OSU to 49% or less inside the arc. OSU is the 5th best 2-point shooting team in the country, but Wisconsin is the 21st best defending it. I think defense wins out on this one. Near Miss. OSU was at 51%.

My Prediction: The Badgers win again, cracking the Bucknuts 67-65 in 64 possessions. Miss. UW lost 60-51 in 56 possessions.

Closing Thoughts: This was an opportunity lost. A win would have been a signature win, but a loss does not hurt too much.

Up next home games with Michigan Wednesday and Penn State Sunday. I fully expect wins in both games. That would put us at 6-2, barring a calamity, going into Purdue and MSU again.

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