Opening Thoughts: Up until I see our draws in the NCAA Tournament, this will be the game I deem us least likely to win all season. Without the inside-outside presence of Jon Leuer, I don’t like our chances in West Lafayette, or many places outside of Madison.
What the Expert Nerds Say:
Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and Purdue #10. He makes Purdue a 4-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #6 and Purdue #9. He predicts a 64-62 Boiler victory in 63 possessions and gives the Badgers a 62% chance of winning.
Purdue Probable Rotation:
*G – 6’3” SR Chris Kramer (6.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, 57% 2PT, 78.8% FT, 121.2 OR, 13% Poss, 10% Shot, 18% TO, 1% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 10% 3FGA/FGA)
*G – 6’4” SR Keaton Grant (5.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 57% 2PT, 80% FT, 100.4 OR, 18% Poss, 18% Shot, 17% TO, 6% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 49% 3FGA/FGA)
*G – 6’4” JR E’Twaun Moore (17.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 56% 2PT, 108.8 OR, 27% Poss, 30% Shot, 16% TO, 4% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 29% 3FGA/FGA)
*F – 6’8” JR Robbie Hummel (16.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 54% 2PT, 91% FT, 124.7 OR, 23% Poss, 26% Shot, 9% TO, 6% OffReb, 22% DefReb, 41% 3FGA/FGA)
*F/C – 6’10” JR JaJuan Johnson (14.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 54% 2PT, 110.6 OR, 25% Poss, 23% Shot, 16% TO, 12% OffReb, 17% DefReb, 2% 3FGA/FGA)
F – 6’5” FR Kelsey Barlow (4.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 52% 2PT, 88.5 OR, 19% Poss, 15% Shot, 31% TO, 7% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 6% 3FGA/FGA)
G – 6’5” FR D.J. Byrd (2.6 PPG, 80.8 OR, 19% Poss, 19% Shot, 18% TO, 5% OffReb, 5% DefReb, 66% 3FGA/FGA)
G – 6’3” SO Ryne Smith (3.7 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 50% 2PT, 100% FT, 107.6 OR, 13% Poss, 16% Shot, 17% TO, 4% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 82% 3FGA/FGA)
F – 6’8” FR Patrick Bade (2.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 78.5 OR, 20% Poss, 18% Shot, 26% TO, 10% OffReb, 21% DefReb, 5% 3FGA/FGA)
G – 6’2” SO John Hart (2.7 PPG, 106.4 OR, 29% Poss, 30% Shot, 14% TO, 3% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 46% 3FGA/FGA)
Key:
OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)
Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%
What Purdue is really good at:
1. Shooting 2s. Purdue is 35th in 2-point shooting percentage (52.4%). This is 3rd in the Big Ten.
2. Defending the paint. They give up 41.9% shooting inside the arc (17th) and block nearly 1 in every 8 2-pointers (42nd, or 12.7%). These are both second and third in the Big Ten.
3. Forcing turnovers. They are 18th in the nation forcing turnovers (24.9%), which is second in the Big Ten.
4. Taking care of the ball. They are 10th in the nation at it, only once in every 6 possessions (16.5%). This is second in the Big Ten.
What Purdue is really bad at:
1. Shooting 3s. They shoot 30.7% from beyond the arc. That puts them at 287th in the nation and 10th in the Big Ten.
2. Defending 3s. They give up 36.9% from beyond the arc, good for 282nd in the nation and last in the Big Ten.
3. Keeping opponents off the line. They allow their opponents to attempt 4 free throws per 10 shot attempts (41.4%), good for 248th and 10th in the Big Ten.
Relative efficiency:
When Purdue has the ball: Purdue has scored a great 1.14 PPP in their first 19 games, while UW has given up a great 0.86 in their first 20.
When UW has the ball: Purdue gave up a good 0.88 in their first 19 games, while UW has scored a great 1.14 in their first 20.
Pace: Purdue has played at 70 possessions per game so far in their first 19 games compared to UW’s 62 in their first 20 games.
My expectations:
1. The Badgers break their icy streak from 3, nailing 35% or better from 3. I just think they are due for a decent outing from the arc.
2. Bohannon nets more than 11. To go with #1, J-Bo lights it up from trey.
3. Wisconsin grabs more than 75% of the rebounding opportunities on defense. Last time Wisconsin grabbed an awesome 85% and have rebounded even better defensively without Leuer.
4. Purdue shoots worse than 29% from 3. Purdue is bad at shooting them and Wisconsin is good at defending them.
5. Jordan Taylor scores more than 14. He continues his great performance from the PSU game.
My Prediction: The Badgers drop one, losing a 67-63 game in 60 possessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment