Friday, January 15, 2010

Ohio State Pre-Game Analysis #2

Opening Thoughts: On tap for Saturday is OSU 2.0. This time the roles are reversed. Ohio State is the home team and Wisconsin is the team missing a star player from the rotation. Although I may be biased, I think Wisconsin is not as hurt by the lack of a Jon Leuer as much as OSU was without Turner. It has changed Wisconsin’s dynamic and strategy on offense, but I think they can adapt better than OSU could. I’ve tweaked the set-up of the analysis due to some suggestions and eliminated the key players feature since you can pretty much figure them out from the statistics provided and you’re more familiar with Big Ten players anyway.

What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #11 and OSU #37. He makes Ohio State a 1-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #4 and OSU #20. He predicts a 62-61 Badger victory in 60 possessions and gives the Badgers a 55% chance of winning.

Note: Sagarin and Pomeroy are unable to objectively calculate UW’s abilities with Jon Leuer out, so they don’t.

Ohio State Probable Rotation:
*F – 6’7” JR Evan Turner (18.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 61% 2PT, 114.4 OR, 33% Poss, 29% Shot, 23% TO, 12% OffReb, 28% DefReb, 9% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’6” JR Jon Diebler (13.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 45% 3PT, 83% FT, 128.6 OR, 16% Poss, 19% Shot, 1% TO, 1% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 80% of FGAs are 3PT)
*G – 6’5” SO William Buford (13.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 101.3 OR, 26% Poss, 29% Shot, 15% TO, 5% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 31% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’5” JR David Lighty (13.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.9 SPG, 61% 2PT, 105.2 OR, 23% Poss, 21% Shot, 21% TO, 6% OffReb, 13% DefReb, 35% of FGAs are 3PT)
*F – 6’8” JR Dallas Lauderdale (7.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 71% 2PT, 113.4 OR, 15% Poss, 12% Shot, 18% TO, 10% OffReb, 15% DefReb, 0% of FGAs are 3PT, 13% BLK)

G – 6’1” SR P.J. Hill (4.7 PPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 RPG, 53% 2PT, 92% FT, 122.8 OR, 14% Poss, 12% Shot, 20% TO, 2% OffReb, 9% DefReb, 60% of FGAs are 3PT)
G – 6’2” SR Jeremie Simmons (7.6 PPG, 1.2 APG, 1.1 RPG, 43% 3PT, 65% 2PT, 75% FT, 114.4 OR, 19% Poss, 22% Shot, 11% TO, 1% OffReb, 7% DefReb, 64% of FGAs are 3PT)
F – 6’9” SR Kyle Madsen (2.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 53% 2PT, 114.4 OR, 12% Poss, 10% Shot, 28% TO, 8% OffReb, 10% DefReb, 0% of FGAs are 3PT)

OR = offensive rating, or personal points per possession
Poss = possession usage
Shot = share of shots taken
TO = percentage of personal possessions ending in turnover
OffReb = % of offensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything in double digits is good)
DefReb = % of defensive rebounding opportunities grabbed by player (anything above 15% is good for forwards/center, double digits for guards)

Note: If I don’t list a player’s 2PT%, it’s not above 50%, if I don’t list 3PT%, it’s not above 40%, and if I don’t list FT%, it’s not above 75%

What Ohio State is really good at:

1. Shooting 2s and 3s. OSU is 33rd in the nation at 3s (39.4%) and 5th in 2s (55.9%). This ranks them first in the Big Ten at both categories.

2. Defending the paint. The Nuts block one of their opponents’ every seven 2-point attempts (23rd) and give up only 44% inside (58th). This ranks 2nd and 4th respectively in the Big Ten.

3. Pump Faking. They are 19th in the nation at avoiding blocks, with a rate of about 1 block for every 18 2-pointers they attempt. This is third in the Big Ten.

4. Forcing Turnovers. The Buckeyes are 39th in the nation, forcing a rate of 23.8%. They are 3rd in the Big Ten.

What Ohio State is really bad at:

1. Shooting free throws. The Nuts shoot 66.9% from the line, 221st in the nation and 10th in the Big Ten.

2. Defending free throws. OSU is giving up 71.7% at the line, good for 289th and dead last in the Big Ten.

Relative efficiency:

When OSU has the ball: OSU has scored an great 1.14 PPP in their first 17 games, while UW has given up a great 0.86 in their first 17.

When UW has the ball:
OSU gave up a great 0.91 in their first 17 games, while UW has scored a great 1.16 in their first 17.

Pace: OSU has played at 67 possessions per game so far in their first 17 games compared to UW’s 62 in their first 17 games.

My expectations:

1. Diebler doesn’t reach double digits. Diebler is a great 3-point shooter, but last season and earlier this season he was chased very well by J-Bo and Taylor, and I think that happens again, preventing Diebler from having a solid game.

2. Jordan Taylor scores more than 14. Ohio State doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to stay in front of both Pop and Jordan, and I think they put priority on Trevon.

3. Badgers grab 80% or more of the defensive rebounding opportunities. I’ll give this one a go again against a bad/disinterested offensive rebounding team.

4. Badgers hold OSU to 49% or less inside the arc. OSU is the 5th best 2-point shooting team in the country, but Wisconsin is the 21st best defending it. I think defense wins out on this one.

My Prediction: The Badgers win again, cracking the Bucknuts 67-65 in 64 possessions.

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