Saturday, January 9, 2010

Purdue Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: All’s well after a win against a top competitor. PU was ranked #4 and deserved their ranking. UW should move up a notch or two.

Against MSU, Taylor would drive to the rim effectively. He continued that against PU and punished PU for the pressure they exerted. Taylor has the size and strength to take his defender inside and finish (he took Kory Lucious to the hole Wednesday in particular, and a bunch of different PU guards today). That is a great asset.

Summarizing the game in a few words: UW won the turnover battle, protected their defensive glass, and hit more free throws to win the game.

Pace: The game had 68 possessions. For the year we have averaged 63 and in conference 61. The possession count was increase when PU when into foul mode the last 90 seconds.

Efficiency: Was it offense or defense? Mostly good defense (or poor PU offense, take your pick). PU had been scoring at 1.15 PPP but UW held them to .97 PPP. Meanwhile, UW scored at 1.07 PPP, lower than the 1.12 PPP we had been averaging for the year, but not bad. We now have been scoring at 1.02 in conference and holding our opponents to .89 PPP.

Shooting: PU had a two point advantage from the floor, UW had a 9 point advantage from the line.

eFG%: PU outshot UW from the field with an eFG% of 50%, while UW was at 46%. Our opponents had been at 44% for the year and 42% in conference. UW had been at 52% for the year and 49% in conference.

3 pt shooting: UW took an extra 9 three point attempts (19 to 10) but only made an extra 2 (5 to 3). PU hit 30% and UW somewhat less at 26%. Because of the extra quantity, UW gained 6 points beyond the arc.

2pt shooting: Inside the arc, PU took 6 extra shots and made 4 more. PU was 22 of 43 for 51% while UW was 18 of 37 for 49%. PU got the six points back they lost at the arc and added two more.

1pt shooting: Here lies the story of the game. PU was a very bad 54% from the line compared to UW’s 81%. Since UW tried 3 extra FTA’s, that translated into UW making 9 extra free throws (UW was 22 of 27, 81% compared to PU’s 13 of 24, 54%). Those 9 free throws won the game.

Rebounding: Both teams did well on their defensive boards, but UW did very well.

UW Defensive end: There were 34 rebounding opportunities and UW retained 29 leaving PU 5, or 15%. The national average is 33% and UW typically allows a nation leading 24%. So, in short, UW ruled their defensive glass.

UW Offensive End: UW grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. Yeah! Our last 3 games we grabbed 6,5, and 5. There were 37 rebound opportunities and UW got 27%. While that is only decent, it is a big improvement over the 15% we had the last few games.

Turnovers: PU had 10 and UW 8. PU had 15% of their possessions end in turnovers while UW kept it to 12%. UW has been at 16%, which is one of the best in the nation.

Fouls: Both teams fouled a lot. PU had 25 and UW 20. For the year, UW averages 17 and our opponents 20. In conference, UW has been outfouling our opponents – UW has been whistled for 18.5 to our opponents 17.8.

All this translated into UW 3 extra free throws and make an extra 9.

Playing time: UW played 8 ten or more minutes. That is an oddity for Bo. Keaton only played 10 due to serious foul trouble. JBO played all 40, which is another oddity. Evans to 17 and Wilson 13. Taylor played 29.

Notable Performances: This was a guard dominated game.

Jordan Taylor had a great line scoring 23 on 11 FGA’s. He was 7-11 from the floor, 1-3 from deep, 8-11 from the line, two boards and two TO’s. Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people. I think we might light up a special fire just in your name.

Trevon rebounded from a terrible shooting game against MSU to torch PU with 14 points on flawless shooting: 1-1 from inside, 2-2 from deep, 6-6 from the line. He added 5 rebounds and two memorable turnovers (Kramer ripped it out of his hands and the long pass out of bounds at the end of the game). Trevon, people, campfires, …

Jason Bohannon did his thing. No, not the fine shooting scoring 20 on 10 FGA’s, 2-5 from deep, 6-6 from the line. No, it was not the 3 clutch rebounds. JBo’s thing is his shot blocking. He added 3 to his impressive run. JBo, same as Taylor and Hughes.

Bruesewitz grabbed 5 boards in 6 minutes. He added an important free throw.

Leuer met his match with Hummel and Johnson. Jon was 2-15 from the floor (ugh) and scored only 4. The good news was he chipped in 10 rebounds. Hummel scored 13 on 13 shots (2-9 inside, 1-4 from deep with the one being a desperation 3 late), 6-6 from the line, and 7 boards.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Hummel doesn’t reach 13 points. Wisconsin finally has multiple defenders capable of shutting him down. Miss. If only you would have said, “Does not score more than 13,” then I could have given you a hit. But he misses a lot of shots.

2. Bohannon nets more than 11. Purdue collapsing on Leuer and Nankivil in the paint will give some great looks to J-Bo on his home court. Major hit. JBO was great today (see notable performances) nailing 20 on only 10 FGA’s.

3. Badgers hold Purdue to 48% or less inside the arc. Purdue is the 38th best 2-point shooting team in the country, but Wisconsin is the 21st best defending it. I think defense wins out on this one. Miss, barely. PU hit 51% inside. Nankivil being in foul trouble did not help.

4. Wisconsin grabs more than 72% of the rebounding opportunities on defense. Purdue is good at offensive rebounding, but Wisconsin relatively shut-down a much better MSU team. Major hit. UW had 85%.

5. Purdue shoots worse than 29% from 3. Purdue is bad at shooting them and Wisconsin is good at defending them. Hopefully Kramer doesn’t pull another clutch one out of his ass again this time around at the Kohl. Miss, barely. PU hit 30%.

My Prediction: The Badgers break the losing streak to the not-so-baby Boilers, squeaking out a 67-63 in 64 possessions. Hit. 73-66 in 68.

Closing Thoughts: Nothing like beating a top ten team to warm your heart on a cold January day.

I thought this was going to be a low scoring game when UW was stuck on 10 for about 9 minutes in the first half. But, things turned around.

I question Painter’s decision to go into foul mode with 1:30 left down 5. That allowed UW to put it away late, IMHO. UW did a great job of hitting free throws and that put it away.

UW has road games with NU this Wednesday and OSU on Saturday. We have had a tough time in Evanston in both football and basketball. I would be happy to get one win in the next two. If we win two, we should compete for the conference title.

Neither team played zone today. So, no need to chart how we did against the zone. We should see a lot of it against NU. Anyone want to volunteer to see our PPP against their zone?

BTW, I am disappointed no one took the bait on the question of what is more valuable, an offensive rebound or a turnover. My take is that they are roughly equal, but a turnover is more decisive and somewhat more preferable (an offensive rebound may or may not end up in points, a turnover definitely does not result in points).

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