Friday, January 8, 2010

Purdue Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Well, things aren’t getting any easier Saturday, with the Boilermakers of Purdue coming to town. Hopefully we can get a better result than Wednesday night. I think it all hinges on three-point shooting.

What the Expert Nerds Say:

Jeff Sagarin ranks Wisconsin #12 and Purdue #4. He makes Wisconsin a 4-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin #5 and Purdue #6. He predicts a 63-59 Badger victory in 62 possessions and gives the Badgers a 66% chance of winning.

Purdue Probable Rotation:
*G – 6’3” SR Chris Kramer (6.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 SPG, 59.2% 2PT, 12.3% Poss, 9.6% Shot)
*G – 6’4” SR Keaton Grant (6.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 54.3% 2PT, 18.3% Poss, 19.4% Shot)
*G – 6’4” JR E’Twaun Moore (16.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 54.2% 2PT, 26.8% Poss, 30.7% Shot)
*F – 6’8” JR Robbie Hummel (15.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 57.3% 2PT, 90.2% FT, 22.9% Poss, 25.2% Shot)
*F/C – 6’10” JR JaJuan Johnson (14.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 55.3% 2PT, 25.4% Poss, 24.2% Shot)
F – 6’5” FR Kelsey Barlow (3.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 19.3% Poss, 14.6% Shot)
G – 6’5” FR D.J. Byrd (3.5 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 19.1% Poss, 18.4% Shot)
G – 6’3” SO Ryne Smith (4.9 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.2 APG, only 10 2-pt attempts, 14.6% Poss, 16.2% Shot)
F – 6’8” FR Patrick Bade (2.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 21.5% Poss, 19.7% Shot)
G – 6’0” FR Mark Wohlford (2.3 PPG, 9.2% Poss, 9.0% Shot)

Note: Poss% = percentage of total possessions used by player when they are on the court
Shot% = percentage of total shots taken by player when they are on the court

This season they have played at a pace of 70 possessions per game, similar to Gonzaga and Illinois. They play clutch and grab man-to-man defense getting a lot of glamour defensive statistics.

Key Players:

E’Twaun Moore – Moore is their most aggressive offensive player and leading scorer. He has an offensive rating of 109.4 due to a great turnover rate of 14.1%, shoots 54% of 2-pointers, 33% of 3-pointers, and 76% of free throws.

JaJuan Johnson – Their inside presence on both sides of the ball. He scores a great 116.1 offensive rating due to shooting 55% inside the arc, shooting 73% from the line, taking 5 free throws for every 9 field goal attempts, and doesn’t turn it over much (13.6%). He grabs 13.5% of all offensive rebounding opportunities and 16.2% of all defensive. Lastly, he blocks 8.2% of all 2-pointers attempted when he’s on the court, yet only fouls 2.8 times per 40 minutes.

Robbie Hummel – He has a great 122.7 offensive rating due to 57% 2-point shooting, 90% free throw shooting, and a great turnover rate of 9.5%. He’s a great defensive rebounder, grabbing 20.8% of all opportunities on defense. He’s a great inside-outside threat, basically a poor man’s Kyle Singler (Purdue fans, it’s a joke due to Duke fans being offended by my description of Singler as a Hummel clone with better driving ability).

Chris Kramer – Offensively, he’s barely there. He shoots less often than Tim Jarmusz, yet I’d venture a guess the Purdue fanbase doesn’t criticize the guy as much as Wisconsin does towards TJ. He is efficient, scoring an offensive rating of 124.5, via shooting a good deal of free throws (71.4 rate) and hitting them (80%), hitting almost 60% of his 2-pointers, and turns it over 16.5% of the time. He is 1-fer from 3. However, his real value is on defense. I certainly won’t miss him after this season. He is a very Kelley-esque player… tenacious, physical, scrappy. Let’s just say I’m not expecting a great game out of Hughes or Taylor due to his abilities on defense.

What Purdue is really good at:

1. Shooting 2s. Purdue is 38th in 2-point shooting percentage (52.5%).

2. Defending the paint. They give up 39.9% shooting inside the arc (10th) and block nearly 1 in every 7 2-pointers (29th, or 14%).

3. Forcing turnovers. They are 11th in the nation forcing turnovers (26.4%), along with being 51st at steals, nearly one every 8 possessions (12.1%).

4. Rebounding. They grab 35.1% of the rebounding opportunities on offense (105th) and 69% on defense (101st).

5. Pump faking. They are 28th in the nation, only getting blocked once for every 17 2-point attempts (6%).

6. Taking care of the ball. They are 17th in the nation at it, only once in every 6 possessions (16.6%).

What Purdue is really bad at:

1. Shooting 3s. They shoot 31.4% from beyond the arc. That puts them at 255th in the nation.

2. Defending 3s. They give up 37% from beyond the arc, good for 272nd in the nation.

3. Keeping opponents off the line. They allow their opponents to attempt 4 free throws per 10 shot attempts (40.8%), good for 242nd.

Relative efficiency:

When Purdue has the ball: Purdue has scored a great 1.12 PPP in their first 14 games, while UW has given up a great 0.90 in their first 15.

When UW has the ball: Purdue gave up a good 0.92 in their first 14 games, while UW has scored a great 1.12 in their first 15.

Pace: Purdue has played at 70 possessions per game so far in their first 14 games compared to UW’s 63 in their first 15 games.

My expectations:

1. Hummel doesn’t reach 13 points. Wisconsin finally has multiple defenders capable of shutting him down.

2. Bohannon nets more than 11. Purdue collapsing on Leuer and Nankivil in the paint will give some great looks to J-Bo on his home court.

3. Badgers hold Purdue to 48% or less inside the arc. Purdue is the 38th best 2-point shooting team in the country, but Wisconsin is the 21st best defending it. I think defense wins out on this one.

4. Wisconsin grabs more than 72% of the rebounding opportunities on defense. Purdue is good at offensive rebounding, but Wisconsin relatively shut-down a much better MSU team.

5. Purdue shoots worse than 29% from 3. Purdue is bad at shooting them and Wisconsin is good at defending them. Hopefully Kramer doesn’t pull another clutch one out of his ass again this time around at the Kohl.

My Prediction: The Badgers break the losing streak to the not-so-baby Boilers, squeaking out a 67-63 in 64 possessions.

1 comment:

  1. C'mon, you wrote this after the game, didn't you?

    Nice work.