Saturday, January 22, 2011

Illinois Box Score Observations 2.0

Opening Comments: UW countered a road loss to Illinois and removed the bad taste of the MSU loss with a 10 point 76-66 win in Kohl Center. While UW expects to win home games, beating a ranked team such as Illinois is always satisfying.

Bo figured he would counter Illinois size by starting Jared Berggren. It turned out UW did better with a smaller line up and drove home the win.

Summarizing the game in a few words: Illinois shot terribly from the floor, while UW shot well enough earn the victory. Both teams fouled regularly but Illinois gave UW 5 more chances at the line and 4 more points from the line.

Pace: The game had 62 possessions. That is a lot fewer than I would have guessed watching the game with all the free throws shot towards the end. UW has been at 59 possessions for the year and 59 in conference.

Efficiency: UW scored at a sparkling 1.23 PPP. This game shows how efficient you can be when you get to the line (see free throw numbers below). UW has been at 1.18 PPP for the year, 1.13 in conference play. So, this was a very good offensive day despite not shooting particularly well from the floor.

Illinois scored at 1.06 PPP, which is good enough to win a lot of B10 ball games, but not this one. Our opponents have been at 1.05 PPP in conference. That must go down or we will have a real problem the rest of the year. Quality of competition has a big impact.

Shooting: Illinois got up more shots inside but failed to score more points, which was fatal for their efforts.

eFG%: Illinois’s shooting was – well, how do you phrase this –pathetic. Their eFG% was 34%. Our opponents have typically scored a low 44%. That is the second worst shooting performance by an opponent this year (Manhattan’s 31% was worse).

UW shot a respectable 46%, below our typical 52% for the year, but on your conference average of 46%. Things get tougher in conference.

3 pt shooting: Illinois began the brickfest at the arc where they made 4 of 16, 25%. UW did marginally better making 6 of 20 for 30%., for our 13th best day in 16 games. That gave UW an extra 6 point from the arc.

2pt shooting: Each team made 12 shots inside the arc. But, Illinois took an extra 11 shots to get their 12 makes. Illinois made 32% (12 of 37) and UW 46% (12 of 26) of their twos. So, despite investing in 11 more shots, the teams had the same points inside the arc. Each team scored 16 in the paint.

1pt shooting: Both teams shot well from the line hitting 83%. UW took 5 extra shots from the line and scored four more points. UW was 34 of 41 and Illinois 30 of 36.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 234 Opponent Attempts: 278 Difference: -44

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 24% 18%

Mid Range 11% 12%

Paint 21% 24%

FT Line 45% 45%

Rebounding: Both teams did a good job on the offensive glass (or, a not so good job defending their defensive glass, however you want to look at it).

UW Defensive end: Illinois got 15 of 39 rebounding opportunities, for a good 38%.

UW Offensive End: UW did a good job getting 11 of 31 misses, for 35%.

Turnovers: Both teams were tagged with 7 turnovers, or 11%. That is excellent for both teams.

Opportunity Index: Illinois won the OI by +4 thanks to their extra offensive rebounds. From a points perspective, UW lost 9 points on second chance points (13 to 4) and were tied at 8 on points off turnovers.

Fouls: Illinois fouled 30 times and UW 24. Those are the most fouls on the year for UW and for a UW opponent. UW was able to match Illinois on a percentage basis and gain 4 points.

Playing time: Bo played 7 ten or more minutes. Berggren got a start and played 15. Gasser got 23 minutes and Bruesewitz 22 minutes.

Notable Performances: Leuer, Taylor and Nankivil did most of the scoring getting 62 of 76 points. Illinois ended up sending Jordan Taylor to the line for 18 attempts where he made 16. Leuer made 7 of 8 FTA’s. Taylor scored 22 on 10 FGA’s, Leuer got 26 on 16 FGA;’s and Nankivil 14 on 9 FGA’s, Keaton, Jon and Jordan, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of my people.

Jarmusz picked up his third turnover for the year. To offset the rare event, Tim scored 5 on 2 FGA’s (2-2 from the line), and grabbed 5 boards.

When your team goes 16 of 53 from the floor (30%), there were a lot of players with poor shooting days. No Illini player made half or more of their shots.

McCamey scored 23 including 17 of 21 from the line. He was 3-13 from the floor. He had one turnover and one offensive rebound. So, he used up 23 possessions to get his 23 points. That will not win a lot of games.

On offense, I would give Taylor the edge having scored 22 on 19 possessions.

Grading Shetown’s Predictions

1. Badgers shoot better than 38% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Illini is stingy, but I like the Badgers to overcome it. Miss. UW hit 30% from deep, not good, but better than Illinois’s 25%.

2. Berggren scores in double figures. With a front-court for Illinois big enough to enable a good deal of playing time, Ice-Berg has a great game off the bench. Miss. Berggren gets a start, but only 2 points. Apparently Bo thought he might have a good day and gave him the start.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% on the defensive. They aren't great at rebounding. Miss. Got 35%, which is pretty good.

The Badgers avenge the previous match-up, winning 74-65 in 66 possessions. Hit. 76-66 in 62.

Closing Thoughts: UW getting 45% of our points from the line was an oddity. But, scoring from the line is the best way to jack up your PPP, and UW made 83% of their opportunities for a great day at the line, and a great offensive day in general.

UW has Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern coming up. This is a chance to get on a bit of a roll if we can get two road wins – a tall order but doable.

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