What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-62 Badger loss in 59 possessions with a 45% chance of victory.
Illinois Likely Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| * G | 6'3" | Demetri McCamey | 32.7 | 16.0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 123.4 | 24.3 | 20.0 | 73.3% | 49.5% | 51.6% | 41.3% | 2.90 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 40.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| * G | 6'3" |  .J. Richardson | 31.0 | 12.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 119.7 | 16.3 | 15.3 | 65.0% | 48.1% | 46.1% | 59.4% | 1.56 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 12.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| * G/F | 6'7" | Jereme Richmond | 21.8 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 99.2 | 21.7 | 18.1 | 60.0% | 49.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 2.40 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| * F | 6'9" | Mike Davis | 29.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 106.3 | 19.1 | 17.3 | 61.1% | 53.6% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.86 | 6.5 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| * C | 7'1" | Mike Tisdale | 24.4 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 111.3 | 21.4 | 18.7 | 81.6% | 50.0% | 38.5% | 12.4% | 3.62 | 14.1 | 20.2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 1.3 |
| G | 6'4" | Brandon Paul | 19.9 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 98.7 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 66.7% | 48.1% | 34.9% | 45.3% | 2.84 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 16.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| F | 6'9" | Bill Cole | 18.1 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 138.8 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 75.0% | 60.0% | 42.1% | 71.7% | 2.26 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| C | 7'0" | Meyers Leonard | 9.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 85.9 | 15.7 | 25.7 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 1.88 | 4.6 | 14.7 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| F | 6'8" | Tyler Griffey | 8.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 86.6 | 17.3 | 21.6 | 55.6% | 40.0% | 33.3% | 26.5% | 2.65 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 34.2 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 130.8 | 24.5 | 9.8 | 86.2% | 48.4% | 38.3% | 39.7% | 3.84 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 30.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| * G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 26.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 117.5 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 88.0% | 55.3% | 19.4% | 44.9% | 3.62 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| * F | 6'6" | Mike Breusewitz | 22.8 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 123.4 | 13.6 | 18.3 | 69.2% | 57.1% | 40.0% | 47.2% | 2.45 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 32.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 128.0 | 27.7 | 10.9 | 81.5% | 49.6% | 49.2% | 36.1% | 3.00 | 6.5 | 21.6 | 15.9 | 5.9 | 1.5 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 21.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 126.3 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 90.9% | 59.6% | 44.4% | 36.5% | 1.49 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 2.1 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 19.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 143.2 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | 85.7% | 1.19 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 13.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 82.4 | 25.0 | 22.3 | 76.2% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 3.75 | 8.4 | 21.0 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 111.3 | 23.9 | 31.5 | 71.4% | 76.2% | 45.5% | 34.4% | 2.19 | 7.0 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.6 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 7.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 123.7 | 18.5 | 13.6 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 16.7% | 27.3% | 1.82 | 9.4 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
What Illinois is really good and bad at (Top 25% = Green and Bottom 25% = Red):
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 18.5 | 35.1 | 27.6 | 42.0 | 50.3 | 68.5 | 6.7 | 8.2 |
| Defense | 23.4 | 66.0 | 33.3 | 30.6 | 46.1 | 64.9 | 13.5 | 9.4 |
What Wisconsin is really good and bad at (Top 25% = Green and Bottom 25% = Red):
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 14.4 | 37.9 | 28.5 | 38.1 | 50.1 | 80.5 | 6.0 | 7.4 |
| Defense | 19.4 | 70.7 | 28.4 | 35.6 | 40.1 | 71.1 | 12.5 | 6.7 |
Relative Efficiency:
When Illinois has the ball: They have scored a great 1.10 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.92 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up an good 0.94 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.20 this season.
Pace: Illinois has played at 70 possessions per game to UW's 59.
My expectations:
1. Badgers hold the Illini to below 38% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Badgers is solid for a second straight game. Unfortunately I think this opens up opportunities for Tisdale and Davis.
2. Berggren scores in double figures. With a front-court for Illinois big enough to enable a good deal of playing time, Ice-Berg slightly nullifies Tisdale's production.
3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 77% on the defensive. They aren't great at rebounding.
The Badgers suffer their first Big Ten loss to Illinois, 65-62 in 57 possessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment