Opening Comments: Well, that game sucked. The Badgers just surrendered their ability to control their own destiny in terms of winning the Big Ten championship. And the Big Ten isn't letting up on them easy, with a gauntlet stretch over the next few weeks. They take on Purdue twice, MSU, and Ohio State in the next 5 games. But first things first. The Badgers take on Purdue for a battle for second place. Some observations from the stats on Purdue bring up some interesting questions... How does JaJuan Johnson foul less often than Tim Jarmusz while blocking 2.1 shots per game? Senior/all-star treatment? Where did Ryne Smith come from all of a sudden? What happened to E'Twaun Moore? He improved his offensive rating this season via a drastic reduction of turnovers and upping his assists a bit, but his two-point shooting, free throw shooting, and free throw rate have all taken a substantial dive.
What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-59 Badger victory in 57 possessions, with a 32% of upset.
Jeff Sagarin predicts a 3-point Wisconsin victory.
Purdue Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 5'9" | Lewis Jackson | 27.2 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 121.2 | 20.7 | 24.3 | 74.3% | 56.8% | 71.4% | 13.7% | 6.86 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 28.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.61 |
| * G | 6'3" | Ryne Smith | 28.0 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 169.0 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 85.7% | 75.0% | 56.8% | 91.7% | 4.38 | 2.3 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3.49 |
| * G | 6'4" | E'Twaun Moore | 34.7 | 15.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 111.3 | 25.4 | 7.8 | 60.7% | 38.8% | 37.0% | 40.3% | 2.09 | 5.7 | 13.3 | 25.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.56 |
| * F | 6'9" | Travis Carroll | 10.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 122.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | - | 54.5% | - | 0.0% | 0.00 | 9.0 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.87 |
| * F/C | 6'10" | JaJuan Johnson | 36.0 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 118.7 | 26.6 | 10.7 | 89.5% | 50.4% | 45.5% | 8.1% | 4.19 | 6.6 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.73 |
| G | 6'5" | Kelsey Barlow | 18.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 100.8 | 19.4 | 23.0 | 69.6% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 6.57 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 18.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 4.58 |
| G | 6'2" | Terone Johnson | 18.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 100.6 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 43.8% | 59.1% | 27.3% | 36.4% | 3.64 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 18.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.44 |
| G/F | 6'5" | D.J. Byrd | 17.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 108.1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 66.7% | 1.67 | 3.0 | 9.4 | 13.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 4.36 |
| F | 6'8" | Patrick Bade | 8.8 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 72.9 | 14.1 | 25.0 | - | 14.3% | - | 0.0% | 0.00 | 20.6 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 5.71 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % | Fouls/40 |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 38.0 | 20.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 130.6 | 28.4 | 6.6 | 88.5% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 4.86 | 3.1 | 14.1 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 3.16 |
| * G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 22.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 116.4 | 13.6 | 14.7 | 66.7% | 56.3% | 11.1% | 36.0% | 2.40 | 6.1 | 14.8 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 4.04 |
| * F/G | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 29.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 132.8 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 36.0% | 92.6% | 2.22 | 2.3 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.04 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 34.9 | 18.1 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 112.1 | 29.7 | 9.4 | 90.3% | 50.0% | 35.5% | 27.0% | 2.70 | 4.9 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 2.58 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 31.1 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 139.5 | 18.3 | 9.3 | 88.2% | 48.0% | 55.3% | 60.3% | 2.70 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 3.86 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 18.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 106.6 | 14.7 | 10.0 | 80.0% | 57.1% | 20.0% | 51.7% | 1.72 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.74 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 9.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 47.2 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 100.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 43.8% | 1.25 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.45 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 7.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 92.5 | 17.3 | 6.6 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 2.86 | 8.8 | 17.9 | 6.8 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 7.1 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 58.9 | 16.2 | 50.0 | - | 50.0% | - | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.1 | 15.7 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 6.36 |
Purdue Big Ten Team Stats:
| Purdue | Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% |
| Offense | 14.5 (#2) | 34.4 (#3) | 36.5 (#3) | 41.8 (#3) | 47.7 (#8) | 74.2 (#5) | 8.3 (#9) | 8.1 (#7) |
| Defense | 18.4 (#3) | 71.1 (#3) | 27.9 (#5) | 42.0 (#11) | 46.9 (#5) | 66.7 (#1) | 8.1 (#3) | 7.6 (#6) |
Wisconsin Big Ten Team Stats:
| Wisconsin | Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% |
| Offense | 10.4 (#1) | 26.3 (#10) | 30.5 (#7) | 36.1 (#7) | 48.9 (#7) | 85.7 (#1) | 3.9 (#1) | 5.1 (#1) |
| Defense | 15.4 (#9) | 70.1 (#4) | 39.6 (#9) | 32.4 (#3) | 46.6 (#3) | 75.3 (#7) | 7.1 (#4) | 5.5 (#11) |
Big Ten PPP Aerial:
See Photo
Relative Efficiency:
When Purdue has the ball: Purdue has scored 1.160 PPP, second best in the conference. Wisconsin surrenders 1.037 PPP, the second best defense in the conference.
When Wisconsin has the ball: Wisconsin has scored 1.170 PPP, the best offense in the conference. Purdue surrenders 1.038 PPP, the third best defense in the conference.
Purdue's Good Wins:
Oakland (#69), @-Virginia Tech (#31), Alabama (#41), @-Michigan (#61), Northwestern (#52), @-Penn State (#46), Penn State (#46), Michigan State (#38), Minnesota (#43)
Purdue's Losses:
N-Richmond (#57), @-Minnesota (#43), @-West Virginia (#16), @-Ohio State (#1)
Wisconsin's Good Wins:
N-Boston College (#67), @-Marquette (#25), Minnesota (#43), Michigan (#61), Illinois (#18), Indiana (#60), @-Northwestern (#52)
Wisconsin's Losses:
@-UNLV (#26), N-Notre Dame (#23), @-Illinois (#18), @-Michigan State (#38), @-Penn State (#46)
My Expectations:
1. Badgers drain more than 40% of their threes. Purdue has the worst three-point defense in the conference and the familiar confines of the Kohl should combine for a lights-out performance.
2. Keaton is the leading scorer for the Badgers. He's a Boiler killer, shooting 75% from beyond the arc against Purdue, and having both of his two +20-point games against them.
3. Wisconsin grabs more than 73% of the rebounding opportunities on the defensive end. They neutralize one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the Big Ten.
My Prediction: The Badgers rebound, escaping with a 66-64 victory in 58 possessions.
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