Thursday, January 6, 2011

Illinois Box Score Observations

Opening Comments: Well, if you're Packers fan, at least they won so there's some joy in Mudville this weekend. The Badgers went down, unlike their 3-point shots, by a score of 69-61 in Champaign.

Summarizing the game in a few words: Illinois was on fire shooting and Wisconsin went ice cold from deep in the second half. Illinois decided to pack the paint to dare Wisconsin into jump-shooting themselves back in the game, and they couldn't.

Pace: The game had 58 possessions, one less than our average of 59.

Efficiency: Was it bad offense or bad defense by UW? Both, by UW standards, but more so defense.

UW scored at 1.05 PPP, not close to our yearly average of 1.20.

On defense, UW allowed Illinois 1.19 PPP. That is much higher than our typical 0.92. We need to hold opponents to under 1.00 PPP in the B10 to expect to win consistently.

Shooting: The Illini dominated in quality from everywhere and UW was only the victor in quantity from deep.

eFG%: Illinois hit a hot 63.4% eFG while UW was at a poor 43.3%.

3 pt shooting: Illinois was hot from behind the arc. They were 6 for 12, 50%. UW took nearly three times the shots, 35, and made four more baskets, 10, for 29%. That gave UW an extra 12 points from deep.

2pt shooting: Illinois returned the favor inside. They knocked down 17 of 29 two-pointers for 59%, while the Badgers made 11 of 25 for 44%. They outscored UW by 12 inside to break even from the floor.

Illinois outscored UW in the paint by a 4 points, 20 to 16.

1pt shooting: Illinois won the game at the line. They were 17 for 22, 77%, while UW was a lackluster (for them) 9 of 12 for 75%. That gave the Illini a plus 8 at the line, the margin of victory.

The “We Make More Free Throws Than Our Opponents Attempt” Scoreboard

UW Makes: 174 Opponent Attempts: 209 Difference: -35

With MSU and Illinois again within the next two weeks, I have a feeling this will disappear from a possible stat line.

Floor Location:

Location UW Opp

Arc 49% 26%

Mid Range 10% 20%

Paint 26% 29%

FT Line 15% 25%

Rebounding: Illinois out-rebounded us at on the defensive end and we won the offensive end.

UW Defensive end: There were 20 rebounding opportunities and Illinois got 6, or 30%. That isn't bad, but not great either.

UW Offensive End: When UW shot, there were 19 more rebounding chances, 39, but UW only got 11 or 28%. Again, not bad, but not great for the Badgers.

Turnovers: The Illini had 12 turnovers, or 21% of their possessions ended in turnovers, which is more than the average Badger opponent. UW again took stellar care of the ball, only coughing it up 3 times for 5%. This was a key for UW. UW outscored Illinois 19-4 off turnovers. But, it is the possessions that had no turnovers that were important.

Opportunity Index: UW won the OI by +14 due their care of the ball. Wisconsin was a +5 on offensive rebounds and a +9 on turnovers. From a points perspective, UW was -2 on second chance points and +15 off turnovers for a net +13.

Fouls: UW had five more fouls than Illinois, 20-15. Illinois shot more freebies, largely because being in the bonus with 14 minutes to go in the second half. Illinois netted 8 extra points from the line to go.

Playing time: Bo played 8 ten or more minutes with Wilson getting 10, Jarmusz starter-like 25, and Berggren 11. Gasser had 15 and Bruesewitz each had 19. Taylor and Leuer played Ironman minutes of 38. Evans barely missed with 9.

Bruce played 7 ten or more. On a sidenote, the front runner for my most-hated player on Illinois once McCamey leaves is Meyers Leonard. He's got the face of a 5-year old, has a last name for a first name, and has a swagger/demeanor that he hasn't earned the right to have.

Notable Performances: Leuer and Taylor did a majority of the shooting. Leuer scored 19 on 18 FGA and 4 FTA. Taylor got 19 on 16 FGA and 4 FTA. Leuer had 5 rebounds and Taylor 5 assists. The remarkable stat of the day was Taylor played 38 minutes against dogged defense and didn't have a turnover before fouling out with 5 seconds left in the game.

Keaton scored 11 on 9 FGA (3-6 from the arc), 7 boards, and a block. Jarmusz scored 6 on 2-6 from deep and chipped in a steal. Keaton and Tim, long will the tales of your exploits be told around the campfires of the cheese lover's people.

Wquinton Smith joined the ranks of Club Trillion, having a blank stat sheet in less than a minute of playing time. Congrats Q!

I paid extra attention to McCamey today, and it was amazing to me how many push-offs he gets away with. The classic example was an inbounds play in the second half when he was guarded by Gasser. McCamey faked going to the arc and shoved off Josh while cutting to the basket. He was obviously wide open and got to shoot 2 FTAs from getting fouled by Leuer on the weak side help.

Grading My Predictions

1. Badgers hold the Illini to below 38% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Badgers is solid for a second straight game. Unfortunately I think this opens up opportunities for Tisdale and Davis. Miss. They hit 50%.

2. Berggren scores in double figures. With a front-court for Illinois big enough to enable a good deal of playing time, Ice-Berg slightly nullifies Tisdale's production. Miss. He scored two, as Keaton and Jon played 69 minutes total, not leaving much time for Jared to play.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 77% on the defensive. They aren't great at rebounding. Miss and Miss. They grabbed 28% and 70%.

The Badgers suffer their first Big Ten loss to Illinois, 65-62 in 57 possessions. Hit, kinda. They won 69-61 in 58 possessions.

Closing Thoughts: The Badgers return home Wednesday to face the Wolverines of Michigan. Hopefully the friendly rims of the Kohl Center will be more lenient with the Badgers' long distance shots.

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