Northwestern Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: Quite the doubleheader for the states of Wisconsin and Illinois tomorrow, although I suppose not many people care about Nerdwestern compared to the Bears. The Badgers enter the game tied for third in the Big Ten at 4-2, and the Mildcats come in at 3-4, tied for 7th with Penn State.


What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 0.5-point underdog.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-65 Badger victory in 58 possessions with a 44% chance of upset.

The boys in the desert have the Badgers as a 2-point favorite.


Tradition of Excellence:
In the past 71 years, the NCAA Tournament Committee has extended 2.749 invitations to the Big Dance. Northwestern is the only high-major conference team to not receive one.
In past 72 years, the NIT has extended 1,572 invitations to their post-season tournament. Northwestern has been invited five times.

Indiana: 40 bids (35 NCAAs, 4 NITs, 1 CCAT)
Purdue: 32 bids (23 NCAAs, 8 NITs, 1 NCIT)
Illinois: 31 bids (27 NCAAs, 4 NITs)
Ohio State: 31 bids (23 NCAAs, 8 NITs)*
Michigan State: 29 bids (24 NCAAs, 5 NITs)
Iowa: 27 bids (22 NCAAs, 5 NITs)
Michigan: 26 bids (17 NCAAs, 9 NITs)*
Wisconsin: 20 bids (16 NCAAs, 4 NITs)
Minnesota: 18 bids (7 NCAAs, 11 NITs)*
Penn State: 17 bids (8 NCAAs, 9 NITs)
Northwestern: 5 bids (0 NCAAs, 5 NITs)

Northwestern averages one post-season appearance every 14.4 years. The next worst Big Ten team in that regard, Penn State, averages an appearance every 4.2 years!


Northwestern Likely Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	5'10"	Michael Thompson	39.4	14.7	2.1	4.6	1.9	0.0	108.8	20.5	17.0	72.0%	47.2%	38.6%	55.0%	3.13	0.8	6.1	22.9	0.0	2.8	2.9
* G	6'5"	JerShon Cobb	30.6	10.1	3.4	2.3	0.9	0.1	111.9	17.7	6.3	75.0%	51.4%	28.6%	43.1%	1.85	4.2	9.7	14.8	0.5	1.6	1.68
* G/F	6'5"	Drew Crawford	28.6	10.4	4.7	1.3	0.6	1.1	93.5	21.4	16.9	62.5%	33.3%	45.2%	44.3%	1.14	4.5	16.2	9.1	4.5	1.2	4.8
* F	6'8"	John Shurna	31.6	14.1	3.9	2.7	1.4	1.0	113.9	22.6	9.6	70.3%	41.5%	41.9%	43.1%	5.14	3.0	12.3	17.4	3.6	2.7	1.99
* F/C	6'11"	Luke Mirkovic	25.0	10.7	5.0	1.9	0.3	0.3	104.6	23.8	18.8	65.2%	55.1%	33.3%	10.9%	4.18	6.4	18.5	16.0	1.3	0.6	4.57
G	6'3"	Alex Marcotullio	20.1	5.0	2.3	2.1	0.9	0.1	115.7	13.7	28.1	50.0%	62.5%	47.1%	68.0%	0.80	4.0	10.1	19.8	0.8	2.5	3.97
F	6'9"	Davide Curtelli	15.0	4.4	2.3	1.1	0.3	0.6	108.7	17.2	13.3	75.0%	31.3%	44.4%	36.0%	4.80	4.3	14.8	14.0	4.3	1.1	6.1
F	6'6"	Mike Capocci	8.9	2.1	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.3	140.5	11.6	8.3	71.4%	62.5%	0.0%	11.1%	7.78	7.3	12.5	11.7	3.6	2.9	4.52

Wisconsin Likely Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	38.8	22.0	4.8	4.3	0.8	0.0	129.4	30.3	5.9	90.0%	49.0%	36.1%	42.4%	5.88	3.4	13.2	31.3	0.0	1.5	2.92
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	20.0	2.2	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.0	112.2	11.0	10.5	60.0%	55.6%	0.0%	35.7%	3.57	6.6	6.6	19.3	0.0	1.1	3.67
* F/G	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	29.5	4.5	2.3	1.5	0.3	0.2	142.6	7.9	5.0	100.0%	-	38.9%	100.0%	3.33	2.2	8.3	10.7	0.6	0.7	1.81
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	36.7	18.0	7.0	1.7	0.3	0.8	106.3	30.2	11.6	89.3%	43.8%	36.0%	28.1%	3.15	5.4	20.0	13.1	2.5	0.6	2.18
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	30.2	12.5	5.5	0.7	0.7	1.8	135.8	18.5	12.5	88.2%	42.9%	55.2%	67.4%	3.95	6.6	17.7	5.6	6.9	1.5	4.86
F	6'6"	Mike Bruesewitz	17.8	3.2	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	96.5	14.3	9.0	80.0%	54.5%	10.0%	47.6%	2.38	7.5	3.7	4.1	2.1	1.3	2.99
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	11.8	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	53.9	15.4	15.3	100.0%	25.0%	0.0%	38.5%	1.54	0.0	6.8	10.5	0.0	1.1	5.42
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	9.7	1.8	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.8	99.4	15.6	7.6	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	23.1%	1.54	9.2	18.4	8.0	9.8	0.0	4.83
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	5.2	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.2	51.4	13.5	50.0	-	50.0%	-	0.0%	0.00	0.0	12.9	0.0	3.6	0.0	7.74

What Northwestern is really good and bad at :

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	15.5 (#3)	26.7 (#9)	32.5 (#7)	39.4 (#4)	46.9 (#8)	69.9 (#9)	9.3 (#8)	7.4 (#6)
Defense	20.3 (#3)	64.4 (#10)	40.7 (#10)	39.4 (#7)	52.6 (#9)	69.3 (#2)	6.9 (#6)	10.4 (#1)

What Wisconsin is really good and bad at :

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	10.3 (#1)	24.6 (#10)	38.7 (#4)	35.1 (#8)	46.2 (#10)	86.4 (#1)	3.9 (#2)	4.6 (#2)
Defense	15.7 (#7)	67.8 (#8)	39.3 (#9)	33.3 (#3)	45.3 (#4)	77.8 (#8)	8.4 (#3)	5.4 (#10)

Relative Efficiency:

When Northwestern has the ball: They have scored an average 1.097 PPP in the Big Ten season, while UW has given up a good 1.054.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an average 1.097 PPP in the Big Ten season, while UW scored a great 1.146 this season.


Pace: Northwestern has played at 67 possessions per game to UW's 58.


Northwestern's Good Wins (Top 75):
Georgia Tech (#74), Indiana (#64), Michigan (#66)

Northwestern's Losses:
@ St. John's (#53), @ Purdue (#8), Michigan State (#23), @ Illinois (#15), @ Michigan State (#23)

Wisconsin's Good Wins (Top 75):
N-Boston College (#56), @ Marquette (#27), Minnesota (#45), Michigan (#66), Illinois (#15), Indiana (#64)

Wisconsin's Losses:
@ UNLV (#20), N-Notre Dame (#31), @ Illinois (#15), @ Michigan State (#23)


My Expectations:

1. Badgers shoot better than 39% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Nerds is terrible.

2. Keaton scores more than 15. I think he has a strong game after a relatively quiet 9 and 7 showing against Indiana.

3. Badgers grab more than 35% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% on the defensive. They are worse than us at rebounding.

The state of Wisconsin sweeps the day, with the Badgers grinding out a 70-62 victory in 60 possessions.