Opening Thoughts: After the cold shooting that doomed the Badgers in the Illinois game, they hope to rebound against the Wolverines of Michigan. Michigan enters the game with a record of 11-3 (1-1), just like the Badgers. They have top 100 wins against #51 Clemson, #80 Penn State, and #87 Oakland. Their losses are close ones to Syracuse and UTEP on a neutral court, and a blowout loss to Purdue on their home court.
What the expert nerds say:
Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 11-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 62-53 Badger victory in 55 possessions with a 13% chance of an upset.
Michigan Likely Rotation:
Wisconsin Rotation:
What Michigan is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):
What Wisconsin is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):
Relative Efficiency:
When Michigan has the ball: They have scored a great 1.08 PPP this season, while UW has given up a good 0.94 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up a great 0.92 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.
Pace: Michigan has played at 64 possessions per game to UW’s 59.
My Expectations:
1. The Badgers knock down more than 40% of their threes. Home rims + 1-3-1 zone = blazing nets.
2. Gasser hits double digits for the first time since the Manhattan game. He likes to attack the basket from the left corner/wing, which is an easy thing to do against a 1-3-1.
3. The Badgers make more free throws than the Wolverines attempt. They also are terrible at getting to the line, and I like the Badgers refocusing their efforts at attacking the basket.
The Badgers destroy the Wolverines 70-52 in 56 possessions.
What the expert nerds say:
Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 11-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 62-53 Badger victory in 55 possessions with a 13% chance of an upset.
Michigan Likely Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| G | 6'4" | Darius Morris | 34.4 | 15.6 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 118.6 | 26.8 | 16.8 | 75.0% | 55.6% | 34.3% | 23.5% | 4.03 | 1.2 | 10.3 | 48.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| G | 6'5" | Tim Hardaway, Jr. | 26.1 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 102.4 | 23.7 | 12.2 | 78.6% | 47.5% | 28.8% | 55.3% | 3.18 | 4.1 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Zack Novak | 32.3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 109.1 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 82.9% | 45.5% | 31.6% | 63.3% | 3.89 | 3.3 | 21.4 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| F | 6'9" | Evan Smotrycz | 18.8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 106.0 | 20.4 | 17.2 | 78.6% | 46.9% | 39.2% | 61.4% | 1.69 | 4.4 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| F | 6'8" | Jordan Morgan | 22.9 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 110.1 | 22.9 | 19.4 | 61.3% | 59.4% | - | 0.0% | 3.23 | 15.0 | 18.3 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| G | 6'3" | Stu Douglass | 26.3 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 106.5 | 16.0 | 17.9 | 16.7% | 48.6% | 45.0% | 61.9% | 0.62 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| G | 6'4" | Matt Vogrich | 15.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 107.3 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 71.4% | 57.1% | 34.3% | 71.4% | 2.86 | 3.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| F | 6'9" | Jon Horford | 9.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 109.4 | 21.9 | 17.9 | 75.0% | 60.0% | 16.7% | 19.4% | 3.87 | 15.6 | 27.7 | 3.8 | 9.6 | 0.6 |
| F | 6'6" | Colton Christian | 7.0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 48.9 | 13.5 | 38.1 | 0.0% | 10.0% | - | 0.0% | 2.00 | 16.4 | 20.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Wisconsin Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 34.2 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 129.6 | 24.7 | 9.0 | 87.1% | 48.0% | 37.7% | 41.3% | 3.71 | 3.0 | 11.2 | 30.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 26.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 116.7 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 88.0% | 55.3% | 18.8% | 45.7% | 3.57 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 16.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Breusewitz | 22.8 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 119.5 | 13.9 | 16.8 | 66.7% | 55.2% | 37.0% | 48.2% | 2.68 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 32.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 125.6 | 27.8 | 9.9 | 81.0% | 49.6% | 46.6% | 36.9% | 2.93 | 6.1 | 22.1 | 15.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 21.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 125.8 | 18.1 | 16.5 | 90.9% | 58.0% | 45.5% | 39.8% | 1.33 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 1.9 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 19.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 137.8 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | 87.5% | 1.04 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 13.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 81.3 | 24.8 | 22.9 | 76.2% | 31.5% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 3.68 | 7.7 | 21.1 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 108.7 | 23.7 | 28.8 | 66.7% | 69.6% | 45.5% | 32.4% | 2.65 | 8.2 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 7.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 113.6 | 19.0 | 15.7 | 75.0% | 75.0% | 12.5% | 32.0% | 1.60 | 8.1 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
What Michigan is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | Free Throw % | Block % | Steal % | |
| Offense | 17.5 (#33) | 30.1 (#247) | 28.1 (#324) | 34.2 (#158) | 51.7 (#57) | 72.6 (#63) | 9.5 (#187) | 7.0 (#13) |
| Defense | 19.2 (#249) | 72.2 (#29) | 25.4 (9th) | 31.3 (#76) | 44.1 (#68) | 65.2 (#66) | 7.2 (#247) | 6.5 (#337) |
What Wisconsin is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | Free Throw % | Block % | Steal % | |
| Offense | 13.7 (#1) | 37.1 (#45) | 27.9 (#326) | 37.1 (#79) | 49.8 (#96) | 80.2 (#2) | 6.3 (#23) | 7.1 (#15) |
| Defense | 19.5 (#235) | 70.5 (#65) | 29.9 (#48) | 36.5 (#243) | 41.1 (#20) | 71.8 (#293) | 12.2 (#58) | 6.6 (#331) |
Relative Efficiency:
When Michigan has the ball: They have scored a great 1.08 PPP this season, while UW has given up a good 0.94 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up a great 0.92 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.
Pace: Michigan has played at 64 possessions per game to UW’s 59.
My Expectations:
1. The Badgers knock down more than 40% of their threes. Home rims + 1-3-1 zone = blazing nets.
2. Gasser hits double digits for the first time since the Manhattan game. He likes to attack the basket from the left corner/wing, which is an easy thing to do against a 1-3-1.
3. The Badgers make more free throws than the Wolverines attempt. They also are terrible at getting to the line, and I like the Badgers refocusing their efforts at attacking the basket.
The Badgers destroy the Wolverines 70-52 in 56 possessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment