Saturday, January 22, 2011

Illinois Pre-Game Analysis 2.0

Opening Thoughts: I'd rather not mention the last game, it happens, and hopefully not again this season. Illinois enters the game at 13-4, 3-1 in the Big Ten, coming off a 57-55 loss at Penn State, which was preceded by a three game winning streak against Iowa, us, and Northwestern. They have top 100 wins over Maryland (12), North Carolina (21), Gonzaga (36), Oakland (79), and Iowa (77), Wisconsin (11), and Northwestern (51).


What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 4.5-point favorite.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 64-59 Badger victory in 58 possessions with a 30% chance of upset.



Illinois Likely Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl %
* G 6'3" Demetri McCamey 32.8 15.8 3.4 7.1 0.9 0.2 122.2 24.8 21.0 74.2% 48.5% 54.1% 41.8% 3.73 1.3 10.1 40.3 0.7 1.6
* G 6'3" D.J. Richardson 30.4 11.0 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 113.3 16.6 18.9 72.0% 48.3% 44.6% 58.0% 1.75 1.7 5.0 12.5 0.8 1.6
* F 6'9" Bill Cole 19.1 5.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.5 141.4 12.2 8.8 75.0% 63.2% 44.9% 72.1% 1.76 7.0 8.0 11.4 2.9 1.7
* F 6'9" Mike Davis 30.1 11.0 6.8 1.8 0.7 1.0 110.9 18.3 15.5 63.0% 54.9% 0.0% 0.7% 3.17 6.4 18.9 10.7 3.5 1.3
* C 7'1" Mike Tisdale 25.2 10.3 7.5 1.2 0.5 1.5 111.6 21.3 19.7 83.7% 52.7% 41.2% 13.2% 3.33 13.5 20.6 8.5 6.5 1.0
G/F 6'7" Jereme Richmond 20.2 7.5 4.5 1.2 0.4 0.5 97.8 22.5 20.3 62.1% 49.5% 14.3% 6.1% 2.54 11.0 14.5 11.2 2.8 1.1
G 6'4" Brandon Paul 20.1 7.7 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.4 97.3 22.3 23.6 65.6% 47.5% 36.0% 45.9% 2.94 3.3 12.1 16.1 2.2 3.2
C 7'0" Meyers Leonard 9.7 3.1 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 91.6 16.8 26.6 63.6% 55.3% 0.0% 2.6% 2.82 4.8 12.6 1.1 4.1 1.8
F 6'8" Tyler Griffey 8.4 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 77.9 17.7 25.5 54.5% 38.5% 30.0% 27.8% 3.06 7.1 12.3 1.1 2.2 2.0


Wisconsin Likely Rotation:
Position Height Name MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG Off Rating Poss % TO % FT% 2PT% 3PT% 3FGA Rate FT Rate Off Reb% Def Reb% Ast % Blk % Stl %
* G 6'1" Jordan Taylor 35.1 16.7 4.3 4.7 0.9 0.2 129.5 25.2 9.1 86.5% 47.0% 39.7% 40.0% 3.79 3.3 12.2 29.7 0.6 1.6
* G/F 6'4" Rob Wilson 9.5 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 103.5 17.4 14.7 83.3% 56.5% 9.1% 32.4% 1.76 5.7 12.4 12.0 0.0 1.0
* G/F 6'6" Tim Jarmusz 21.9 4.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 139.5 9.1 4.2 77.8% 50.0% 37.0% 88.5% 1.73 3.2 7.6 10.4 0.0 1.9
* F 6'10" Jon Leuer 33.3 18.8 7.3 2.1 0.7 1.5 121.6 28.1 11.8 81.5% 47.6% 46.8% 35.6% 2.93 6.4 21.5 15.7 5.1 1.4
* F 6'8" Keaton Nankivil 24.1 8.9 4.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 129.0 17.4 17.1 92.3% 56.4% 52.3% 44.4% 1.31 10.1 14.1 7.2 7.0 2.2
G 6'3" Josh Gasser 24.8 5.6 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 119.1 15.3 13.4 88.5% 57.1% 18.2% 44.0% 3.47 7.3 11.2 16.8 0.2 1.3
F 6'6" Mike Bruesewitz 21.3 5.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.2 119.9 14.2 16.9 66.7% 60.6% 33.3% 47.6% 2.38 8.9 8.6 10.2 1.0 0.8
G/F 6'6" Ryan Evans 12.4 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 81.0 24.6 23.6 76.2% 32.1% 0.0% 5.1% 3.56 7.6 21.1 12.7 3.4 0.3
F/C 6'10" Jared Berggren 9.1 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 108.1 23.0 30.2 66.7% 66.7% 45.5% 31.4% 2.57 7.9 16.0 12.5 5.3 0.5


What Illinois is really good and bad at:

Turnover % Rebounding % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 19.7 (#109)
34.0 (#127)
29.9 (#318)
43.4 (#3)
51.2 (#61)
70.0 (#127)
6.9 (#40)
9.0 (#114)
Defense 21.6 (#127)
67.4 (#155)
30.9 (#62)
29.6 (#29)
45.8 (#107)
67.4 (#123)
13.7 (#28)
8.7 (#226)


What Wisconsin is really good and bad at:

Turnover % Rebounding % FTA/FGA 3PT% 2PT% FT% Block% Stl%
Offense 14.2 (#1)
35.9 (#71)
28.1 (#331)
37.8 (#54)
48.8 (#134)
81.0 (#1)
6.6 (#22)
7.1 (#12)
Defense 19.3 (#240)
70.8 (#58)
30.4 (#54)
36.2 (#237)
41.3 (#15)
72.3 (#308)
11.8 (#60)
6.9 (#328)


Relative Efficiency:

When Illinois has the ball: They have scored a great 1.10 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.94 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up an great 0.94 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.18 this season.


Pace: Illinois has played at 69 possessions per game to UW's 59.


My expectations:

1. Badgers shoot better than 38% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Illini is stingy, but I like the Badgers to overcome it.

2. Berggren scores in double figures. With a front-court for Illinois big enough to enable a good deal of playing time, Ice-Berg has a great game off the bench.

3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% on the defensive. They aren't great at rebounding.

The Badgers avenge the previous match-up, winning 74-65 in 66 possessions.

No comments:

Post a Comment