What the expert nerds say: Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 4.5-point favorite.
Ken Pomeroy predicts a 64-59 Badger victory in 58 possessions with a 30% chance of upset.
Illinois Likely Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| * G | 6'3" | Demetri McCamey | 32.8 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 122.2 | 24.8 | 21.0 | 74.2% | 48.5% | 54.1% | 41.8% | 3.73 | 1.3 | 10.1 | 40.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| * G | 6'3" | D.J. Richardson | 30.4 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 113.3 | 16.6 | 18.9 | 72.0% | 48.3% | 44.6% | 58.0% | 1.75 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| * F | 6'9" | Bill Cole | 19.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 141.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 75.0% | 63.2% | 44.9% | 72.1% | 1.76 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| * F | 6'9" | Mike Davis | 30.1 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 110.9 | 18.3 | 15.5 | 63.0% | 54.9% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.17 | 6.4 | 18.9 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| * C | 7'1" | Mike Tisdale | 25.2 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 111.6 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 83.7% | 52.7% | 41.2% | 13.2% | 3.33 | 13.5 | 20.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
| G/F | 6'7" | Jereme Richmond | 20.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 97.8 | 22.5 | 20.3 | 62.1% | 49.5% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 2.54 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| G | 6'4" | Brandon Paul | 20.1 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 97.3 | 22.3 | 23.6 | 65.6% | 47.5% | 36.0% | 45.9% | 2.94 | 3.3 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| C | 7'0" | Meyers Leonard | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 91.6 | 16.8 | 26.6 | 63.6% | 55.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.82 | 4.8 | 12.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| F | 6'8" | Tyler Griffey | 8.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 77.9 | 17.7 | 25.5 | 54.5% | 38.5% | 30.0% | 27.8% | 3.06 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Wisconsin Likely Rotation:
| Position | Height | Name | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | Off Rating | Poss % | TO % | FT% | 2PT% | 3PT% | 3FGA Rate | FT Rate | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | Ast % | Blk % | Stl % |
| * G | 6'1" | Jordan Taylor | 35.1 | 16.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 129.5 | 25.2 | 9.1 | 86.5% | 47.0% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 3.79 | 3.3 | 12.2 | 29.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| * G/F | 6'4" | Rob Wilson | 9.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 103.5 | 17.4 | 14.7 | 83.3% | 56.5% | 9.1% | 32.4% | 1.76 | 5.7 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| * G/F | 6'6" | Tim Jarmusz | 21.9 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 139.5 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 77.8% | 50.0% | 37.0% | 88.5% | 1.73 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| * F | 6'10" | Jon Leuer | 33.3 | 18.8 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 121.6 | 28.1 | 11.8 | 81.5% | 47.6% | 46.8% | 35.6% | 2.93 | 6.4 | 21.5 | 15.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| * F | 6'8" | Keaton Nankivil | 24.1 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 129.0 | 17.4 | 17.1 | 92.3% | 56.4% | 52.3% | 44.4% | 1.31 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 2.2 |
| G | 6'3" | Josh Gasser | 24.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 119.1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 88.5% | 57.1% | 18.2% | 44.0% | 3.47 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 16.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| F | 6'6" | Mike Bruesewitz | 21.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 119.9 | 14.2 | 16.9 | 66.7% | 60.6% | 33.3% | 47.6% | 2.38 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| G/F | 6'6" | Ryan Evans | 12.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 81.0 | 24.6 | 23.6 | 76.2% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 3.56 | 7.6 | 21.1 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| F/C | 6'10" | Jared Berggren | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 108.1 | 23.0 | 30.2 | 66.7% | 66.7% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 2.57 | 7.9 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 0.5 |
What Illinois is really good and bad at:
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 19.7 (#109) | 34.0 (#127) | 29.9 (#318) | 43.4 (#3) | 51.2 (#61) | 70.0 (#127) | 6.9 (#40) | 9.0 (#114) |
| Defense | 21.6 (#127) | 67.4 (#155) | 30.9 (#62) | 29.6 (#29) | 45.8 (#107) | 67.4 (#123) | 13.7 (#28) | 8.7 (#226) |
What Wisconsin is really good and bad at:
| Turnover % | Rebounding % | FTA/FGA | 3PT% | 2PT% | FT% | Block% | Stl% | |
| Offense | 14.2 (#1) | 35.9 (#71) | 28.1 (#331) | 37.8 (#54) | 48.8 (#134) | 81.0 (#1) | 6.6 (#22) | 7.1 (#12) |
| Defense | 19.3 (#240) | 70.8 (#58) | 30.4 (#54) | 36.2 (#237) | 41.3 (#15) | 72.3 (#308) | 11.8 (#60) | 6.9 (#328) |
Relative Efficiency:
When Illinois has the ball: They have scored a great 1.10 PPP this season, while UW has given up a great 0.94 this season.
When UW has the ball: They have given up an great 0.94 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.18 this season.
Pace: Illinois has played at 69 possessions per game to UW's 59.
My expectations:
1. Badgers shoot better than 38% shooting from 3. The perimeter D for the Illini is stingy, but I like the Badgers to overcome it.
2. Berggren scores in double figures. With a front-court for Illinois big enough to enable a good deal of playing time, Ice-Berg has a great game off the bench.
3. Badgers grab more than 38% of the rebounding opportunities on the offensive end and 74% on the defensive. They aren't great at rebounding.
The Badgers avenge the previous match-up, winning 74-65 in 66 possessions.
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