Penn State Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Comments: With thrilling upsets of Michigan State and Illinois, by arch rivals Michigan and Indiana respectively, the Badgers, Boilermakers, and Buckeyes gained some separation from the rest of the Big Ten. The Buckeyes remain undefeated, and Purdue and Wisconsin sit at 2 losses each. But with Minnesota at 3 losses and the rest of the Big Ten at 4 or more, the Badgers have complete control over their ability to win the Big Ten... something only Ohio State can also claim. Normally a game against an 11-8 PSU team wouldn't strike any kind of fear into the hearts of Wisconsin fans, as Bo owns Ed DeChellis, having won all 12 of their head-to-head matchups. Wisconsin even enjoys as average margin of victory of 18.5 points at Penn State's Bryce-Jordan Center. However, this season Penn State has defeated Illinois and Michigan State in Happy Valley, and have a 3-point loss at Ohio State and a 1-point loss at Purdue (in heart-breaking fashion).


What the Expert Nerds Say: Ken Pomeroy predicts a 62-57 Badger victory in 53 possessions, with a 29% of upset.

Jeff Sagarin predicts a 5-point Wisconsin victory.

Vegas has Wisconsin as a 4.5-point favorite.


Penn State Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'0"	Talor Battle	39.3	19.9	3.6	3.8	1.1	0.0	108.9	29.3	13.0	82.2%	52.5%	28.2%	54.6%	3.46	0.9	11.3	22.8	0.0	1.9	2.04
* G	6'1"	Tim Frazier	30.3	4.3	3.9	5.1	1.3	0.1	93.0	16.0	32.7	76.9%	46.2%	0.0%	18.8%	4.06	1.7	15.2	31.8	0.4	2.7	3.64
* F	6'7"	David Jackson	33.6	11.9	5.3	0.6	0.6	0.1	114.0	18.1	17.8	87.0%	46.9%	42.9%	52.2%	3.43	5.8	15.2	3.9	0.4	1.2	3.27
* F	6'8"	Jeff Brooks	37.6	16.3	7.6	2.5	0.6	2.1	131.1	20.8	9.6	80.0%	63.2%	57.1%	17.1%	3.05	10.9	16.6	16.1	6.6	1.1	1.99
* F	6'10"	Andrew Jones	31.9	7.8	5.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	112.6	13.8	20.7	50.0%	63.6%	-	0.0%	2.73	9.5	12.9	5.8	0.4	0.5	4.24
F	6'8"	Billy Oliver	12.9	1.5	1.4	0.4	0.0	0.3	76.5	14.2	18.1	71.4%	20.0%	12.5%	44.4%	3.89	11.0	3.8	5.2	2.2	0.0	7.77
G	6'4"	Jermaine Marshall	11.0	4.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	104.8	21.2	14.2	62.5%	54.5%	33.3%	45.0%	4.00	0.0	6.0	10.2	0.0	2.0	6.06
G	6'5"	Cammeron Woodyard	7.0	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.2	100.4	7.9	0.0	-	50.0%	0.0%	42.9%	0.00	3.4	6.2	8.9	2.8	1.5	0.00

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %	Fouls/40
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	37.9	20.9	4.9	4.3	0.7	0.0	132.7	28.9	5.5	90.2%	49.1%	39.0%	43.6%	5.43	3.1	14.4	28.8	0.0	1.3	2.87
* G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	21.4	3.3	3.4	3.0	0.4	0.0	127.4	13.7	10.3	66.7%	61.5%	12.5%	38.1%	2.86	7.3	14.6	28.4	0.0	1.4	3.47
* F/G	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	29.0	4.3	2.1	1.7	0.4	0.1	137.4	8.3	4.1	100.0%	0.0%	36.4%	95.7%	2.73	2.0	8.0	11.5	0.5	1.0	2.17
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	34.4	18.1	6.3	1.6	0.3	0.7	113.9	29.7	9.9	89.7%	47.2%	40.7%	27.3%	2.93	5.6	19.3	12.5	2.4	0.5	2.32
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	30.3	13.0	5.4	0.6	0.7	1.7	139.2	18.4	10.9	88.2%	55.0%	54.5%	62.3%	3.21	7.1	17.4	4.5	6.5	1.6	4.34
F	6'6"	Mike Bruesewitz	18.7	4.1	1.7	0.6	0.4	0.3	117.5	14.6	7.4	80.0%	61.5%	23.1%	50.0%	1.92	9.4	3.1	6.5	1.7	1.6	2.44
G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	10.8	1.0	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	47.3	16.3	15.3	100.0%	22.2%	0.0%	43.8%	1.25	0.0	6.3	8.8	0.0	1.0	5.54
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	8.7	1.7	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.7	93.0	17.4	6.6	50.0%	45.5%	0.0%	21.4%	2.86	8.9	17.9	6.9	9.5	0.0	5.9
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	5.3	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.1	63.5	17.2	50.0	-	50.0%	-	0.0%	0.00	3.7	11.1	5.7	3.1	0.0	7.57

Penn State Big Ten Team Stats:

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	18.0 (#6)	33.0 (#5)	33.2 (#6)	32.2 (#10)	54.5 (#1)	77.4 (#3)	6.5 (#5)	7.9 (#6)
Defense	15.9 (#8)	72.3 (#1)	30.5 (#5)	41.8 (#9)	46.7 (#5)	69.8 (#4)	5.6 (#8)	7.1 (#8)

Wisconsin Big Ten Team Stats:

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	9.7 (#1)	26.4 (#10)	34.1 (#5)	36.9 (#6)	48.8 (#6)	86.2 (#1)	3.9 (#1)	4.5 (#1)
Defense	15.0 (#9)	70.2 (#5)	38.3 (#8)	31.9 (#2)	45.7 (#3)	77.7 (#8)	7.7 (#4)	5.7 (#11)

Relative Efficiency:
When Penn State has the ball: Penn State has scored 1.09 PPP, 0.004 above the Big Ten average. Wisconsin surrenders 1.035 PPP, the second best defense in the conference.

When Wisconsin has the ball: Wisconsin has scored 1.195 PPP, the best offense in the conference. Penn State surrenders 1.084 PPP, the seventh best defense in the conference, but slightly above average.


Penn State's Good Wins:
Duquesne (#36), @-Indiana (#65), Michigan State (#33), Illinois (#17)


Penn State's Losses:
@-Ole Miss (#75), Maryland (#14), @-Virginia Tech (#31), Maine (#135), @-Michigan (#61), Purdue (#10), @-Ohio State (#1), @-Purdue (#10)


Wisconsin's Good Wins:
N-Boston College (#60), @-Marquette (#28), Minnesota (#43), Michigan (#61), Illinois (#17), Indiana (#65), @-Northwestern (#54)


Wisconsin's Losses:
@-UNLV (#27), N-Notre Dame (#26), @-Illinois (#17), @-Michigan State (#33)


My Expectations:

1. Gasser follows up his triple double with a solid outing, scoring 10 or more points. The Lions defense is awful on the perimeter and that should open up opportunities for Josh.

2. The Badgers shoot better than 44% from beyond the arc. The Badgers are decent 3-point shooters and PSU sucks at defending the 3.

3. Wisconsin grabs more than 29% of the rebounding opportunities on offense. Yes, I'm calling for a Badger weakness to overtake a Lion strength, so?


My Prediction: Wisconsin methodically dismantles Penn State, winning 68-54 in 55 possessions.