MSU Pre-Game Analysis

Opening Thoughts: It's finally here! The first matchup of the season against the Moving Screen University Cryin' Midgets! Whiny Tom's team is pouting its way into the game, having just lost to PSU's Talor Battle, Jeff Brooks, and the champions of last season's competitive rec league on campus in front of a raucous crowd of 53 people. A family of four left at the first TV timeout after realizing the Champions on Ice figure skating show was the next weekend. MSU is currently 10-5, 2-1 in-conference, with losses to the aforementioned #74 PSU team, #14 Texas, #8 Syracuse, #1 Duke, and #29 UConn. They have top 100 wins against South Carolina (#82), Washington (#5), Oakland (#75), Minnesota (#54), and Northwestern (#55).


What the expert nerds say:

Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 1-point underdog.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 61-60 Badger loss in 59 possessions with a 47% chance of a victory.


Will They Remember That?
November 28, 2010 - Tennessee Tech = MSU's Anthony Ianni attempts a jump shot with the shot clock turned off and a 19-point lead

November 12, 2010 - Eastern Michigan = MSU's Keith Appling attempts a jump shot with the shot clock turned off and a 28-point lead, Adreian Payne rebounds the miss and dunks it home

January 2, 2010 - Northwestern = MSU's Jon Crandell attempts a jump shot with the shot clock turned off and a 21-point lead

December 30, 2009 - Texas-Arlington = MSU's Isaiah Dahlman attempts a 3-pointer with the shot clock turned off and a 21-point lead

November 28, 2009 - UMass = MSU's Mike Kebler attempts a jump shot with the shot clock turned off and a 40-point lead

November 20, 2009 - Toledo = MSU's Delvon Roe throws down an alley-oop with the shot clock turned off and an 11-point lead

November 13, 2009 - Florida Gulf Coast = MSU's Austin Thornton attempts a 3-pointer with the shot clock turned off and a 39-point lead

December 13, 2008 - Alcorn State = MSU's Isaiah Dahlman makes a 3-pointer with the shot clock turned off and a 55-point lead

February 23, 2008 - Iowa = MSU's Durrell Summers attempts a lay-up with the shot clock turned off and a 14-point lead

January 27, 2008 - Michigan = MSU's Durrell Summers dunks with the shot clock turned off and a 17-point lead


Michigan State Probable Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Kalin Lucas	29.8	14.3	2.1	3.5	1.3	0.1	104.8	24.5	20.1	75.4%	46.7%	42.6%	28.1%	3.41	1.3	5.9	23.9	0.2	2.4
* G	6'1"	Keith Appling	17.5	5.5	1.8	1.3	0.5	0.5	100.0	16.7	26.9	94.1%	45.2%	39.4%	51.6%	2.66	1.3	9.3	13.8	2.7	1.5
* G	6'5"	Durrell Summers	29.7	15.6	4.7	0.6	0.7	0.2	106.1	22.9	13.7	63.4%	44.8%	43.2%	45.6%	2.12	5.8	11.0	4.3	0.7	1.3
* F	6'7"	Draymond Green	27.7	11.7	8.9	4.0	1.9	1.3	106.0	24.7	20.2	56.3%	49.5%	40.0%	26.1%	4.78	9.7	24.0	28.5	4.8	3.9
* F	6'8"	Delvon Roe	23.1	7.2	5.7	1.2	0.8	1.2	106.5	17.0	20.1	73.1%	48.6%	-	0.0%	2.66	8.1	17.7	9.4	5.2	2.0
G	5'11"	Korie Lucious	24.3	7.3	1.6	4.1	1.0	0.1	95.8	20.6	26.5	80.0%	44.1%	30.8%	65.7%	1.52	3.0	4.2	30.3	0.3	2.3
C	6'10"	Garrick Sherman	16.6	4.6	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	103.6	13.2	24.0	31.3%	68.1%	-	0.0%	3.40	6.8	15.6	5.3	3.2	1.6
G	6'5"	Austin Thornton	12.4	3.0	2.4	1.1	0.1	0.1	112.1	14.7	18.5	100.0%	47.8%	29.4%	42.5%	2.00	10.9	9.9	15.1	0.5	0.6
C	6'10"	Adreian Payne	8.7	2.6	2.6	0.3	0.5	1.0	83.2	21.2	30.3	42.9%	53.6%	0.0%	3.4%	7.24	13.8	17.9	5.6	11.5	3.4
C	6'9"	Derrick Nix	8.6	1.8	2.5	0.3	0.5	0.4	90.1	16.0	22.2	45.5%	45.5%	-	0.0%	20.00	13.0	18.3	5.2	4.2	3.5

Wisconsin Rotation:

Position	Height	Name	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	Off Rating	Poss %	TO %	FT%	2PT%	3PT%	3FGA Rate	FT Rate	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	Ast %	Blk %	Stl %
* G	6'1"	Jordan Taylor	34.7	16.4	4.1	4.8	0.9	0.2	131.4	24.6	9.0	87.1%	48.0%	39.7%	41.7%	3.71	3.1	12.2	29.8	0.7	1.7
* G/F	6'4"	Rob Wilson	7.8	2.3	1.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	111.2	17.6	15.2	75.0%	70.6%	11.1%	34.6%	1.60	7.4	15.5	10.2	0.0	1.3
* G/F	6'6"	Tim Jarmusz	21.2	4.1	1.9	1.2	0.7	0.0	137.7	9.6	4.4	71.4%	50.0%	38.6%	88.0%	1.04	3.5	7.8	10.3	0.0	2.1
* F	6'10"	Jon Leuer	33.1	19.3	7.3	2.2	0.7	1.5	123.0	28.4	11.0	80.6%	48.5%	46.8%	36.2%	2.93	6.2	22.3	16.3	5.2	1.5
* F	6'8"	Keaton Nankivil	23.2	8.4	4.7	0.9	0.7	1.4	126.5	18.0	16.2	92.3%	56.6%	47.4%	41.8%	1.33	10.7	15.0	7.9	6.8	1.9
G	6'3"	Josh Gasser	25.1	5.6	3.6	2.2	0.5	0.1	116.4	15.5	13.8	88.0%	55.0%	18.2%	45.2%	3.57	7.2	11.0	16.2	1.0	0.6
F	6'6"	Mike Breusewitz	21.9	5.2	3.0	1.2	0.2	0.2	120.0	14.2	17.4	66.7%	59.4%	37.0%	45.8%	2.68	8.3	9.1	10.5	3.5	0.4
G/F	6'6"	Ryan Evans	13.0	3.5	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.4	81.8	24.8	22.3	76.2%	32.1%	0.0%	5.1%	3.68	7.6	21.4	12.8	5.6	0.6
F/C	6'10"	Jared Berggren	9.3	4.1	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.5	109.7	23.5	28.4	66.7%	69.6%	45.5%	32.4%	2.65	8.2	17.2	13.2	0.3	1.3

What Michigan State is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	21.9 (#228)	36.6 (#50)	37.1 (#192)	37.5 (#65)	48.8 (#136)	65.0 (#270)	8.8 (#139)	10.1 (#223)
Defense	20.1 (#205)	68.3 (#140)	36.9 (#150)	34.6 (#179)	40.7 (#11)	61.7 (#10)	13.8 (#25)	11.2 (#73)

What Wisconsin is really good and really bad at (out of 347 teams):

	Turnover %	Rebounding %	FTA/FGA	3PT%	2PT%	FT%	Block%	Stl%
Offense	13.8 (#1)	36.6 (#53)	28.6 (#327)	37.6 (#57)	49.7 (#103)	80.4 (#2)	6.0 (#13)	7.0 (#10)
Defense	19.5 (#232)	71.6 (#36)	29.2 (#41)	36.6 (#254)	41.1 (#16)	72.8 (#318)	11.9 (#60)	6.7 (#333)

Relative Efficiency:

When Michigan State has the ball: They have scored a good 1.05 PPP this season, while UW has given up a good 0.94 this season.

When UW has the ball: They have given up a good 0.94 this season, while UW scored a sizzling 1.19 this season.


Pace: Michigan State has played at 70 possessions per game to UW’s 59.


My Expectations:

1. Jordan, Jon, and Keaton score a combined 50 points. I think we end up leaning heavily on these three in this one.

2. The Badgers shoot better than 46% inside the arc. I think MSU will force a lot of perimeter shooting by the Badgers, but I like them to shoot much better than MSU's average opponent when they get their chances.

3. The Badgers grab at least 37% of the offensive rebounding opportunities and at least 73% of the defensive. They are finally able to beat up on MSU on the boards for the first time in a while.

The Badgers come up short, losing 65-62 in 61 possessions.